Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth
11th · 19 pts2–1FULL TIME
Millwall
12th · 18 pts41% Portsmouth
25% Draw
34% Millwall
OUR PICK
Portsmouth to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.45
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.32
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.45X3.9622.94
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
PortsmouthMillwall1.2Goals per game1.8
1.2Conceded per game1.6
1.46Points per game1.38
38%Win rate38%
1Goal difference2
11Form, last 5 (pts)7
Portsmouth form
DWDWWA Burnley0–0
H Millwall2–1
A Wolves1–1
A Norwich0–1
H Sheffield Utd3–2
Millwall form
WLDLWH Derby4–1
A Portsmouth2–1
H Lincoln2–2
H Swansea0–1
A Preston0–1
Head to head
3
Portsmouth
0
Draw
2
Millwall
Oct 2026Portsmouth – Millwall2–1
Feb 2026Millwall – Portsmouth1–3
Nov 2025Portsmouth – Millwall3–1
Apr 2025Millwall – Portsmouth2–1
Jan 2025Portsmouth – Millwall0–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Portsmouth 41%, the draw 25%, Millwall 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.47 for Portsmouth, 1.32 for Millwall), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Portsmouth sit 11th on 19 points; Millwall are 12th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.