Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 14Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Vale Park
Port Vale
18th · 15 pts4–2FULL TIME
Rochdale
19th · 15 pts46% Port
27% Draw
27% Rochdale
OUR PICK
Port Vale to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.18
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.00
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.18X3.6923.70
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.75
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.37
1X
73%
Season stats
Port ValeRochdale0.8Goals per game1.2
1.2Conceded per game1.9
1.25Points per game1.07
33%Win rate29%
-4Goal difference-9
10Form, last 5 (pts)2
Port Vale form
No recent matches.
Rochdale form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Port
0
Draw
0
Rochdale
These sides haven't met recently.
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Port Vale slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.18 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.39 for Port Vale, 1.00 for Rochdale), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Port Vale sit 18th on 15 points; Rochdale are 19th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.