Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Vale Park
Port Vale
18th · 15 pts1–0FULL TIME
Grimsby
6th · 20 pts27% Port
26% Draw
47% Grimsby
OUR PICK
Grimsby to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.12
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.48
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.72X3.8422.12
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Port ValeGrimsby0.8Goals per game1.7
1.2Conceded per game1.3
1.25Points per game1.43
33%Win rate36%
-4Goal difference6
10Form, last 5 (pts)7
Port Vale form
WWLDWH Rochdale4–2
H Manchester City U215–0
A York2–0
A Gillingham1–1
H Chesterfield1–0
Grimsby form
WWDLLH York5–2
A Gillingham1–4
A Rochdale2–2
H Northampton0–2
A Port Vale1–0
Head to head
1
Port
2
Draw
2
Grimsby
Oct 2026Port Vale – Grimsby1–0
Apr 2025Port Vale – Grimsby2–2
Dec 2024Grimsby – Port Vale3–0
Jul 2023Port Vale – Grimsby1–1
May 2021Grimsby – Port Vale1–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Grimsby slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.12 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.05 for Port Vale, 1.48 for Grimsby), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Port Vale sit 18th on 15 points; Grimsby are 6th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.