Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Vale Park
Port Vale
18th · 15 pts1–0FULL TIME
Chesterfield
10th · 19 pts30% Port
26% Draw
44% Chesterfield
OUR PICK
Chesterfield to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.28
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.48
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.28X3.9022.28
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.00
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@2.00
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Port ValeChesterfield0.8Goals per game1.7
1.2Conceded per game1.5
1.25Points per game1.36
33%Win rate36%
-4Goal difference3
10Form, last 5 (pts)5
Port Vale form
WWLDWH Rochdale4–2
H Manchester City U215–0
A York2–0
A Gillingham1–1
H Chesterfield1–0
Chesterfield form
LWDLDA Newport County4–1
H Crewe5–1
H Colchester1–1
A Port Vale1–0
A Crawley Town2–2
Head to head
3
Port
2
Draw
0
Chesterfield
Oct 2026Port Vale – Chesterfield1–0
Sept 2026Chesterfield – Port Vale1–1
Jan 2025Chesterfield – Port Vale1–1
Sept 2024Port Vale – Chesterfield1–0
Jul 2021Chesterfield – Port Vale0–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Chesterfield slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.28 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.19 for Port Vale, 1.48 for Chesterfield), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Port Vale sit 18th on 15 points; Chesterfield are 10th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.