Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
BRASerie B · Matchday 32Wednesday, 7 October 2026 · Moisés Lucarelli
Ponte Preta
20th · 15 pts0–2FULL TIME
Juventude
2nd · 65 pts8% Ponte
18% Draw
74% Juventude
OUR PICK
Juventude to win
Model probability 74% · fair odds
1.36
Expected goals
0.48 – 2.01
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X2112.88X5.4221.36
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.83
Both scoreGG2.86NG1.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.49
NG
67%
Double chance@1.08
X2
92%
Season stats
Ponte PretaJuventude0.6Goals per game1.3
2.2Conceded per game0.7
0.42Points per game1.81
8%Win rate50%
-57Goal difference22
2Form, last 5 (pts)9
Ponte Preta form
LDDLLA Criciuma2–0
H Fortaleza EC2–2
H Atletico Goianiense1–1
A Novorizontino5–1
H Juventude0–2
Juventude form
DWDDWA Vila Nova2–2
H Nautico Recife4–0
A Ceara2–2
H São Bernardo2–2
A Ponte Preta0–2
Head to head
0
Ponte
0
Draw
0
Juventude
These sides haven't met recently.
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB36+355
7Goias36-355
8Sport Recife36+955
9Atletico Goianiense36+955
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Juventude clear favourites, giving them a 74% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.48 for Ponte Preta, 2.01 for Juventude), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ponte Preta sit 20th on 15 points; Juventude are 2nd on 65.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.