Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
BRASerie B · Matchday 35Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Moisés Lucarelli
Ponte Preta
20th · 15 pts2–2FULL TIME
Fortaleza EC
5th · 62 pts9% Ponte
21% Draw
70% Fortaleza
OUR PICK
Fortaleza EC to win
Model probability 70% · fair odds
1.43
Expected goals
0.50 – 1.85
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X2110.83X4.8521.43
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.71
Both scoreGG2.86NG1.50
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.50
NG
67%
Double chance@1.10
X2
91%
Season stats
Ponte PretaFortaleza EC0.6Goals per game1.2
2.2Conceded per game0.9
0.42Points per game1.72
8%Win rate44%
-57Goal difference12
2Form, last 5 (pts)9
Ponte Preta form
LDDLLA Criciuma2–0
H Fortaleza EC2–2
H Atletico Goianiense1–1
A Novorizontino5–1
H Juventude0–2
Fortaleza EC form
DDWDWH Atletico Goianiense0–0
A Ponte Preta2–2
A Sport Recife0–2
H CRB2–2
A America Mineiro0–1
Head to head
1
Ponte
2
Draw
1
Fortaleza
Oct 2026Ponte Preta – Fortaleza EC2–2
Jul 2026Fortaleza EC – Ponte Preta2–0
Oct 2018Fortaleza EC – Ponte Preta1–1
Jul 2018Ponte Preta – Fortaleza EC2–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB36+355
7Goias36-355
8Sport Recife36+955
9Atletico Goianiense36+955
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Fortaleza EC clear favourites, giving them a 70% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.50 for Ponte Preta, 1.85 for Fortaleza EC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ponte Preta sit 20th on 15 points; Fortaleza EC are 5th on 62.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.