Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
BRASerie B · Matchday 34Friday, 16 October 2026 · Moisés Lucarelli
Ponte Preta
20th · 15 pts1–1FULL TIME
Atletico Goianiense
8th · 54 pts10% Ponte
20% Draw
69% Atletico
OUR PICK
Atletico Goianiense to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.44
Expected goals
0.58 – 1.92
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X219.68X4.9421.44
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.84
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.60
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.60
NG
62%
Double chance@1.12
X2
90%
Season stats
Ponte PretaAtletico Goianiense0.6Goals per game1.2
2.2Conceded per game0.9
0.42Points per game1.54
8%Win rate40%
-57Goal difference9
2Form, last 5 (pts)5
Ponte Preta form
LDDLLA Criciuma2–0
H Fortaleza EC2–2
H Atletico Goianiense1–1
A Novorizontino5–1
H Juventude0–2
Atletico Goianiense form
LDDLWH Novorizontino0–1
A Ponte Preta1–1
H Sport Recife1–1
A CRB3–1
H America Mineiro2–0
Head to head
0
Ponte
1
Draw
4
Atletico
Oct 2026Ponte Preta – Atletico Goianiense1–1
Jun 2026Atletico Goianiense – Ponte Preta2–0
Mar 2026Atletico Goianiense – Ponte Preta1–0
Oct 2023Ponte Preta – Atletico Goianiense0–2
Jun 2023Atletico Goianiense – Ponte Preta1–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Goianiense clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.58 for Ponte Preta, 1.92 for Atletico Goianiense), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ponte Preta sit 20th on 15 points; Atletico Goianiense are 8th on 54.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.