Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Pogon Szczecin
4th · 24 pts4–3FULL TIME
Radomiak Radom
15th · 11 pts71% Pogon
18% Draw
10% Radomiak
OUR PICK
Pogon Szczecin to win
Model probability 71% · fair odds
1.41
Expected goals
2.13 – 0.67
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.41X5.4329.59
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.76
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.76
NG
57%
Double chance@1.12
1X
90%
Season stats
Pogon SzczecinRadomiak Radom1.7Goals per game1.2
1.0Conceded per game2.2
2.00Points per game0.85
58%Win rate23%
8Goal difference-14
12Form, last 5 (pts)3
Pogon Szczecin form
LWWWDA Raków Częstochowa3–1
H Radomiak Radom4–3
A GKS Katowice0–1
H Korona Kielce2–0
H Udinese1–1
Radomiak Radom form
WLLLLH Slask Wroclaw3–1
A Avia Świdnik2–1
A Pogon Szczecin4–3
A Wisla Plock1–0
H Motor Lublin2–3
Head to head
1
Pogon
1
Draw
3
Radomiak
Oct 2026Pogon Szczecin – Radomiak Radom4–3
Dec 2025Pogon Szczecin – Radomiak Radom2–2
Jul 2025Radomiak Radom – Pogon Szczecin5–1
May 2025Radomiak Radom – Pogon Szczecin2–0
Nov 2024Pogon Szczecin – Radomiak Radom0–1
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin12+824
5Zaglebie Lubin13+122
6GKS Katowice13+621
7Piast Gliwice13+421
8Wisla Krakow13+221
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce13-518
Match preview
Our model makes Pogon Szczecin clear favourites, giving them a 71% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.13 for Pogon Szczecin, 0.67 for Radomiak Radom), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Pogon Szczecin sit 4th on 24 points; Radomiak Radom are 15th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.