Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
73%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 10Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Pogon Szczecin
4th · 24 pts2–0FULL TIME
Korona Kielce
10th · 18 pts57% Pogon
24% Draw
19% Korona
OUR PICK
Pogon Szczecin to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.76
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.89
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.76X4.2125.18
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.94
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.94
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.94
NG
52%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
Pogon SzczecinKorona Kielce1.7Goals per game1.1
1.0Conceded per game1.5
2.00Points per game1.38
58%Win rate38%
8Goal difference-5
12Form, last 5 (pts)6
Pogon Szczecin form
LWWWDA Raków Częstochowa3–1
H Radomiak Radom4–3
A GKS Katowice0–1
H Korona Kielce2–0
H Udinese1–1
Korona Kielce form
LLWLLA Zaglebie Lubin1–0
A Polonia Warszawa2–1
H GKS Katowice1–0
A Lech Poznan6–1
A Pogon Szczecin2–0
Head to head
3
Pogon
1
Draw
1
Korona
Oct 2026Pogon Szczecin – Korona Kielce2–0
Mar 2026Pogon Szczecin – Korona Kielce2–1
Sept 2025Korona Kielce – Pogon Szczecin1–0
Dec 2024Korona Kielce – Pogon Szczecin0–0
Jul 2024Pogon Szczecin – Korona Kielce3–0
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin12+824
5Zaglebie Lubin13+122
6GKS Katowice13+621
7Piast Gliwice13+421
8Wisla Krakow13+221
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce13-518
Match preview
Our model makes Pogon Szczecin clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.76 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.72 for Pogon Szczecin, 0.89 for Korona Kielce), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Pogon Szczecin sit 4th on 24 points; Korona Kielce are 10th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.