Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 14Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Home Park
Plymouth
5th · 23 pts0–0FULL TIME
Reading
6th · 22 pts32% Plymouth
23% Draw
45% Reading
OUR PICK
Reading to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.22
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.76
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.14X4.3322.22
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.58NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.58
GG
63%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
PlymouthReading1.5Goals per game1.9
1.4Conceded per game1.0
1.64Points per game1.69
50%Win rate46%
2Goal difference12
7Form, last 5 (pts)10
Plymouth form
DWLLWH Reading0–0
A Cambridge United2–3
A Stevenage3–0
H Huddersfield0–2
H AFC Wimbledon2–1
Reading form
DWWLLA Plymouth0–0
H Barnsley2–1
H Leyton Orient1–0
A Wigan1–0
H Chelsea U210–2
Head to head
0
Plymouth
2
Draw
3
Reading
Oct 2026Plymouth – Reading0–0
Mar 2026Reading – Plymouth2–2
Dec 2025Plymouth – Reading1–4
Aug 2019Plymouth – Reading2–4
Aug 2016Reading – Plymouth2–0
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Reading slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.22 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.45 for Plymouth, 1.76 for Reading), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Plymouth sit 5th on 23 points; Reading are 6th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.