Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
72%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Home Park
Plymouth
5th · 23 pts2–1FULL TIME
AFC Wimbledon
18th · 13 pts62% Plymouth
23% Draw
15% AFC
OUR PICK
Plymouth to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.62
Expected goals
1.77 – 0.75
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.62X4.3826.48
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.18
1X
85%
Season stats
PlymouthAFC Wimbledon1.5Goals per game0.7
1.4Conceded per game1.6
1.64Points per game1.00
50%Win rate23%
2Goal difference-12
7Form, last 5 (pts)1
Plymouth form
DWLLWH Reading0–0
A Cambridge United2–3
A Stevenage3–0
H Huddersfield0–2
H AFC Wimbledon2–1
AFC Wimbledon form
LLDLLA Stockport County2–1
H Arsenal U211–2
H Wycombe1–1
H Mansfield Town0–3
A Sheffield Wednesday5–0
Head to head
3
Plymouth
1
Draw
1
AFC
Oct 2026Plymouth – AFC Wimbledon2–1
Apr 2026AFC Wimbledon – Plymouth1–3
Oct 2025Plymouth – AFC Wimbledon1–2
Dec 2022Plymouth – AFC Wimbledon3–3
Mar 2022Plymouth – AFC Wimbledon2–0
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Plymouth clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.62 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.77 for Plymouth, 0.75 for AFC Wimbledon), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Plymouth sit 5th on 23 points; AFC Wimbledon are 18th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.