Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
NGANPFL · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Rwang Pam Stadium
Plateau United
6th · 16 pts2–3FULL TIME
Sporting Lagos
11th · 15 pts53% Plateau
24% Draw
23% Sporting
OUR PICK
Plateau United to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.03
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.88X4.1624.36
Goals 2.5Over1.95Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
Plateau UnitedSporting Lagos1.6Goals per game1.4
1.3Conceded per game1.3
1.45Points per game1.50
36%Win rate40%
4Goal difference1
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
Plateau United form
DDLWLH Warri Wolves1–1
A Katsina United2–2
H Sporting Lagos2–3
H Kano Pillars4–0
A Enyimba2–0
Sporting Lagos form
LWWDDA Katsina United2–1
A Plateau United2–3
H Bendel Insurance2–1
A Kano Pillars1–1
H Ikorodu City0–0
Head to head
2
Plateau
0
Draw
1
Sporting
Oct 2026Plateau United – Sporting Lagos2–3
Jun 2024Sporting Lagos – Plateau United1–2
Dec 2023Plateau United – Sporting Lagos1–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Plateau United slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.70 for Plateau United, 1.03 for Sporting Lagos), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Plateau United sit 6th on 16 points; Sporting Lagos are 11th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.