Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
84%
ITASerie B · Matchday 9Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Arena Garibaldi
Pisa
8th · 15 pts3–3FULL TIME
Palermo
1st · 26 pts31% Pisa
23% Draw
46% Palermo
OUR PICK
Palermo to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.17
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.81
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.22X4.3822.17
Goals 2.5Over1.58Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.58
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
PisaPalermo1.8Goals per game2.4
1.5Conceded per game1.2
1.50Points per game2.60
40%Win rate80%
3Goal difference12
8Form, last 5 (pts)13
Pisa form
LDDWWA Avellino2–0
H Palermo3–3
A Hellas Verona1–1
H Cremonese3–1
A Vicenza Virtus0–3
Palermo form
WDWWWH Vicenza Virtus3–1
A Pisa3–3
H Carrarese2–1
A Mantova0–2
A Empoli2–4
Head to head
0
Pisa
0
Draw
0
Palermo
These sides haven't met recently.
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Palermo slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.17 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.45 for Pisa, 1.81 for Palermo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Pisa sit 8th on 15 points; Palermo are 1st on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.