Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 25 October 2026 · Wild Horse Pass Stadium
Phoenix Rising
3–3FULL TIME
Lexington
33% Phoenix
23% Draw
44% Lexington
OUR PICK
Lexington to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.29
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.74
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.02X4.3222.29
Goals 2.5Over1.60Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
64%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Phoenix Rising form
DWWLLH Lexington3–3
A Orange County SC1–3
H Las Vegas Lights3–2
A New Mexico United2–1
A Oakland Roots3–0
Lexington form
DWDWWA Phoenix Rising3–3
A Las Vegas Lights3–5
H FC Tulsa0–0
H El Paso Locomotive3–1
A Monterey Bay2–3
Head to head
0
Phoenix
1
Draw
3
Lexington
Oct 2026Phoenix Rising – Lexington3–3
Aug 2026Lexington – Phoenix Rising1–0
Aug 2025Lexington – Phoenix Rising2–0
Jul 2025Phoenix Rising – Lexington0–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Lexington slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.49 for Phoenix Rising, 1.74 for Lexington), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.