Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 11 October 2026 · Wild Horse Pass Stadium
Phoenix Rising
3–2FULL TIME
Las Vegas Lights
49% Phoenix
23% Draw
28% Las
OUR PICK
Phoenix Rising to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.05
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.33
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.05X4.3523.54
Goals 2.5Over1.65Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
62%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Phoenix Rising form
LDWWLA New Mexico United2–0
H Lexington3–3
A Orange County SC1–3
H Las Vegas Lights3–2
A New Mexico United2–1
Las Vegas Lights form
LLLWLA Monterey Bay2–1
H Lexington3–5
A Phoenix Rising3–2
H San Antonio1–0
A Sacramento Republic3–2
Head to head
2
Phoenix
2
Draw
1
Las
Oct 2026Phoenix Rising – Las Vegas Lights3–2
Aug 2026Las Vegas Lights – Phoenix Rising1–1
Feb 2026Phoenix Rising – Las Vegas Lights0–1
Sept 2025Phoenix Rising – Las Vegas Lights0–0
May 2025Las Vegas Lights – Phoenix Rising0–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Phoenix Rising slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.05 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.81 for Phoenix Rising, 1.33 for Las Vegas Lights), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.