Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 34Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Subaru Park
Philadelphia Union
22:00KICK-OFF WAT
Toronto FC
60% Philadelphia
19% Draw
21% Toronto
OUR PICK
Philadelphia Union to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.67
Expected goals
2.36 – 1.34
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.67X5.2124.81
Goals 2.5Over1.40Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.50NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.50
GG
67%
Double chance@1.24
12
81%
Philadelphia Union form
LDLDWA FC Cincinnati1–0
A Nashville SC0–0
H New England Revolution1–2
H Charlotte2–2
A Chicago Fire1–3
Toronto FC form
LWLWDA Atlanta United FC1–0
H DC United2–1
A Columbus Crew4–2
A New York Red Bulls0–2
H Orlando City SC3–3
Head to head
1
Philadelphia
3
Draw
1
Toronto
Apr 2026Toronto FC – Philadelphia Union3–3
Aug 2025Philadelphia Union – Toronto FC1–1
May 2025Toronto FC – Philadelphia Union1–2
Jul 2024Toronto FC – Philadelphia Union2–1
May 2024Philadelphia Union – Toronto FC0–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes Philadelphia Union clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.67 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (2.36 for Philadelphia Union, 1.34 for Toronto FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.