Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 28Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Subaru Park
Philadelphia Union
2–1FULL TIME
Real Salt Lake
10th · 42 pts52% Philadelphia
22% Draw
26% Real
OUR PICK
Philadelphia Union to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.94
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.35
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.94X4.5623.79
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
64%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Philadelphia Union form
LDLDWA FC Cincinnati1–0
A Nashville SC0–0
H New England Revolution1–2
H Charlotte2–2
A Chicago Fire1–3
Real Salt Lake form
LWWWDA San Jose Earthquakes2–1
A Austin1–2
H St. Louis City3–0
A Sporting Kansas City1–3
H San Jose Earthquakes1–1
Head to head
2
Philadelphia
0
Draw
3
Real
Oct 2026Philadelphia Union – Real Salt Lake2–1
Apr 2024Philadelphia Union – Real Salt Lake1–2
Jul 2019Real Salt Lake – Philadelphia Union4–0
May 2018Philadelphia Union – Real Salt Lake4–1
May 2017Real Salt Lake – Philadelphia Union1–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes Philadelphia Union slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.94 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.96 for Philadelphia Union, 1.35 for Real Salt Lake), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.