Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
84%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 31Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Talen Energy Stadium
Philadelphia Union
1–2FULL TIME
New England Revolution
47% Philadelphia
23% Draw
30% New
OUR PICK
Philadelphia Union to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.12
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.42
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.12X4.4023.33
Goals 2.5Over1.59Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
64%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Philadelphia Union form
LDLDWA FC Cincinnati1–0
A Nashville SC0–0
H New England Revolution1–2
H Charlotte2–2
A Chicago Fire1–3
New England Revolution form
WWWWLH New York Red Bulls3–2
A Philadelphia Union1–2
H Chicago Fire1–0
A FC Cincinnati2–3
H Seattle Sounders0–3
Head to head
3
Philadelphia
0
Draw
2
New
Oct 2026Philadelphia Union – New England Revolution1–2
May 2026New England Revolution – Philadelphia Union2–1
Sept 2025Philadelphia Union – New England Revolution1–0
Mar 2025New England Revolution – Philadelphia Union0–2
Jul 2024Philadelphia Union – New England Revolution5–1
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps32+3458
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders32+143
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes Philadelphia Union slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.12 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.83 for Philadelphia Union, 1.42 for New England Revolution), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.