Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
86%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 30Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Subaru Park
Philadelphia Union
2–2FULL TIME
Charlotte
44% Philadelphia
22% Draw
33% Charlotte
OUR PICK
Philadelphia Union to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.26
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.59
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.26X4.4822.99
Goals 2.5Over1.50Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.49NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.50
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.49
GG
67%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Philadelphia Union form
LDLDWA FC Cincinnati1–0
A Nashville SC0–0
H New England Revolution1–2
H Charlotte2–2
A Chicago Fire1–3
Charlotte form
WWLDLH Orlando City SC4–0
H CF Montreal4–0
A Portland Timbers3–2
A Philadelphia Union2–2
A Columbus Crew3–1
Head to head
2
Philadelphia
1
Draw
2
Charlotte
Oct 2026Philadelphia Union – Charlotte2–2
Apr 2026Charlotte – Philadelphia Union2–1
Oct 2025Charlotte – Philadelphia Union2–0
Jun 2025Philadelphia Union – Charlotte2–1
Jul 2024Philadelphia Union – Charlotte1–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes Philadelphia Union slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.26 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.85 for Philadelphia Union, 1.59 for Charlotte), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.