Over 1.5 goals@1.52
Over 1.5
66%
ROULiga I · Matchday 12Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stadionul Ilie Oana
Petrolul Ploiesti
4th · 24 pts1–1FULL TIME
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
11th · 15 pts59% Petrolul
25% Draw
16% Sepsi
OUR PICK
Petrolul Ploiesti to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.71
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.69
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.71X3.9726.15
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.65
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.65
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.65
NG
61%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
Petrolul PloiestiSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1.4Goals per game0.6
1.3Conceded per game1.4
1.71Points per game1.07
50%Win rate21%
1Goal difference-10
8Form, last 5 (pts)2
Petrolul Ploiesti form
DWWDLH CFR 1907 Cluj1–1
A Progresul Spartac0–6
A FC Botosani1–3
H Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1–1
A Farul Constanta3–1
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe form
DDLDLA Oţelul1–1
A Concordia1–1
H Universitatea Craiova0–5
A Petrolul Ploiesti1–1
H Dinamo Bucuresti0–2
Head to head
2
Petrolul
3
Draw
0
Sepsi
Oct 2026Petrolul Ploiesti – Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1–1
Oct 2025Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe – Petrolul Ploiesti2–2
Apr 2025Petrolul Ploiesti – Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe2–1
Mar 2025Petrolul Ploiesti – Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1–0
Nov 2024Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe – Petrolul Ploiesti1–1
Liga I table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Dinamo Bucuresti14+2233
2Universitatea Craiova14+2432
3Rapid14+1030
4Petrolul Ploiesti14+124
5Universitatea Cluj13+522
6FCSB13+121
7Farul Constanta13+120
8Corvinul Hunedoara14019
9CFR 1907 Cluj14-118
10Uta Arad14-318
Match preview
Our model makes Petrolul Ploiesti clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.57 for Petrolul Ploiesti, 0.69 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Petrolul Ploiesti sit 4th on 24 points; Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are 11th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.