Over 1.5 goals@1.56
Over 1.5
64%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · ABAX Stadium
Peterborough
22nd · 10 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Notts County
17th · 14 pts28% Peterborough
29% Draw
43% Notts
OUR PICK
Notts County to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.33
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.24
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.53X3.4722.33
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.60
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.77
NG
56%
Double chance@1.39
X2
72%
Season stats
PeterboroughNotts County0.8Goals per game1.1
1.8Conceded per game1.2
0.77Points per game1.17
15%Win rate25%
-12Goal difference-1
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
Peterborough form
LLDLDH Luton0–2
A Bradford2–0
A Bromley1–1
A Huddersfield4–1
H Burton Albion2–2
Notts County form
WDWLWA Mansfield Town0–2
H Stockport County1–1
H Sheffield Wednesday2–0
A Wycombe2–0
H Nottingham Forest U215–1
Head to head
4
Peterborough
1
Draw
0
Notts
Nov 2024Peterborough – Notts County4–3
Aug 2024Peterborough – Notts County4–3
Dec 2016Peterborough – Notts County2–0
Dec 2016Notts County – Peterborough2–2
Jan 2015Notts County – Peterborough1–2
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Notts County slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.33 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.95 for Peterborough, 1.24 for Notts County), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Peterborough sit 22nd on 10 points; Notts County are 17th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.