Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
WALPremier League · Matchday 13Friday, 9 October 2026 · Bryntirion Park
Penybont
3rd · 33 pts3–1FULL TIME
Barry Town
6th · 28 pts62% Penybont
20% Draw
18% Barry
OUR PICK
Penybont to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.10
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.61X5.0625.55
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.69NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.69
GG
59%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
PenybontBarry Town2.1Goals per game2.1
0.8Conceded per game1.7
2.36Points per game1.87
71%Win rate60%
19Goal difference6
12Form, last 5 (pts)6
Penybont form
WWWLA Cardiff MET0–5
A Afan Lido2–3
H Barry Town3–1
A GAP Connah S Quay FC1–0
Barry Town form
WLWLWH Trefelin3–0
H Haverfordwest County AFC1–3
H Tredegar Town2–0
A Penybont3–1
A Caernarfon Town0–1
Head to head
2
Penybont
1
Draw
2
Barry
Oct 2026Penybont – Barry Town3–1
Apr 2026Penybont – Barry Town0–2
Mar 2026Barry Town – Penybont1–0
Dec 2025Penybont – Barry Town1–1
Aug 2025Barry Town – Penybont2–3
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Penybont clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.20 for Penybont, 1.10 for Barry Town), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Penybont sit 3rd on 33 points; Barry Town are 6th on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.