Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 13Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Estadio Parque Federico Saroldi
Penarol
1st · 65 pts1–1FULL TIME
Wanderers
7th · 51 pts60% Penarol
23% Draw
16% Wanderers
OUR PICK
Penarol to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.66
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.76
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.66X4.2626.17
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.82
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.82
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
PenarolWanderers1.5Goals per game1.2
0.8Conceded per game1.3
1.86Points per game1.46
54%Win rate40%
24Goal difference-2
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
Penarol form
No recent matches.
Wanderers form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Penarol
0
Draw
0
Wanderers
These sides haven't met recently.
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
3Atletico Torque34+1760
4Racing Montevideo35+1460
5Club Nacional34+1058
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Penarol clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.66 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.72 for Penarol, 0.76 for Wanderers), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Penarol sit 1st on 65 points; Wanderers are 7th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.