Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 9Monday, 2 November 2026 · Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril
Penafiel
4th · 16 pts19:00KICK-OFF WAT
Feirense
18th · 2 pts78% Penafiel
16% Draw
6% Feirense
OUR PICK
Penafiel to win
Model probability 78% · fair odds
1.29
Expected goals
2.19 – 0.45
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.29X6.20216.04
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.96
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.47
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.47
NG
68%
Double chance@1.07
1X
94%
Season stats
PenafielFeirense2.3Goals per game0.3
1.0Conceded per game1.3
2.00Points per game0.25
63%Win rate0%
10Goal difference-8
12Form, last 5 (pts)1
Penafiel form
No recent matches.
Feirense form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Penafiel
0
Draw
0
Feirense
These sides haven't met recently.
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Lusitânia Lourosa8+718
3Benfica B9+517
4Penafiel8+1016
5Academica8+415
6Farense8+414
7União de Leiria9+214
8AVS9+112
9Tondela8+112
10Portimonense9-411
Match preview
Our model makes Penafiel clear favourites, giving them a 78% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (2.19 for Penafiel, 0.45 for Feirense), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Penafiel sit 4th on 16 points; Feirense are 18th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.