Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 7Friday, 9 October 2026 · Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril
Penafiel
4th · 16 pts1–2FULL TIME
AVS
10th · 12 pts67% Penafiel
20% Draw
14% AVS
OUR PICK
Penafiel to win
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.50
Expected goals
2.11 – 0.84
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.50X5.1127.23
Goals 2.5Over1.77Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.00
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@2.00
NG
50%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
PenafielAVS2.3Goals per game1.2
1.0Conceded per game1.1
2.00Points per game1.33
63%Win rate33%
10Goal difference1
12Form, last 5 (pts)7
Penafiel form
WLLDWA Farense1–4
H Leça0–1
H AVS1–2
H Deportivo La Coruna2–2
A Oliveirense1–2
AVS form
LWWWWA União de Leiria2–1
H Tondela2–1
H Moreirense1–0
A Penafiel1–2
A Sintrense0–2
Head to head
0
Penafiel
0
Draw
3
AVS
Oct 2026Penafiel – AVS1–2
Mar 2024Penafiel – AVS0–1
Oct 2023AVS – Penafiel1–0
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Lusitânia Lourosa9+719
3Benfica B9+517
4Penafiel8+1016
5Farense9+415
6Academica9+315
7Tondela9+215
8Vizela9+114
9União de Leiria9+214
10AVS9+112
Match preview
Our model makes Penafiel clear favourites, giving them a 67% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (2.11 for Penafiel, 0.84 for AVS), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Penafiel sit 4th on 16 points; AVS are 10th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.