Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
FRALigue 2 · Matchday 12Friday, 6 November 2026 · Nouste Camp
PAU
5th · 20 pts20:00KICK-OFF WAT
Nantes
15th · 9 pts61% PAU
22% Draw
16% Nantes
OUR PICK
PAU to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.63
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.84
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.63X4.5226.08
Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.92
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.92
NG
52%
Double chance@1.20
1X
84%
Season stats
PAUNantes1.5Goals per game1.1
1.0Conceded per game1.6
1.82Points per game0.82
55%Win rate18%
5Goal difference-6
15Form, last 5 (pts)5
PAU form
WWWWWA Metz1–3
H Grenoble2–1
A Guingamp1–2
H Laval3–2
A Toulouse2–3
Nantes form
DLLDWH Clermont Foot1–1
A Saint Etienne1–0
H Dunkerque2–3
H Reims0–0
A Boulogne1–2
Head to head
0
PAU
0
Draw
1
Nantes
Jan 2024PAU – Nantes1–4
Ligue 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3Nancy11+722
4Reims11+1021
5PAU11+520
6RED Star FC 9311-217
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
Match preview
Our model makes PAU clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.63 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.86 for PAU, 0.84 for Nantes), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
PAU sit 5th on 20 points; Nantes are 15th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.