Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
FRALigue 2 · Matchday 10Friday, 23 October 2026 · Nouste Camp
PAU
5th · 20 pts2–1FULL TIME
Grenoble
18th · 8 pts65% PAU
21% Draw
14% Grenoble
OUR PICK
PAU to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.53
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.75
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.53X4.7627.27
Goals 2.5Over2.00Under1.89
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.82
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@2.00
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.82
NG
55%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
PAUGrenoble1.5Goals per game0.9
1.0Conceded per game1.8
1.82Points per game0.73
55%Win rate18%
5Goal difference-10
15Form, last 5 (pts)1
PAU form
WWWWWA Metz1–3
H Grenoble2–1
A Guingamp1–2
H Laval3–2
A Toulouse2–3
Grenoble form
LLLLDH Dijon1–3
A PAU2–1
H Boulogne0–2
A Montpellier2–0
H Stade Lausanne-Ouchy0–0
Head to head
2
PAU
3
Draw
0
Grenoble
Oct 2026PAU – Grenoble2–1
Jan 2026PAU – Grenoble2–2
Oct 2025Grenoble – PAU1–1
Feb 2025PAU – Grenoble1–0
Aug 2024Grenoble – PAU1–1
Ligue 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3Nancy11+722
4Reims11+1021
5PAU11+520
6RED Star FC 9311-217
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
Match preview
Our model makes PAU clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.93 for PAU, 0.75 for Grenoble), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
PAU sit 5th on 20 points; Grenoble are 18th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.