Over 1.5 goals@1.51
Over 1.5
66%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026
Patronato
2–0FULL TIME
Club Atlético Güemes
55% Patronato
26% Draw
19% Club
OUR PICK
Patronato to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.81
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.76
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.81X3.8625.35
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.71
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.71
NG
58%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Patronato form
LLWLWH Agropecuario0–2
A Tristan Suarez1–0
H Club Atlético Güemes2–0
A Chacarita Juniors1–0
H San Martin S.J.3–0
Club Atlético Güemes form
DLWLLH Temperley2–2
A Deportivo Maipu3–1
H Almagro2–1
A Patronato2–0
H Colegiales0–1
Head to head
0
Patronato
0
Draw
0
Club
These sides haven't met recently.
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes35+149
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Patronato clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.52 for Patronato, 0.76 for Club Atlético Güemes), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.