Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
ALBSuperliga · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Arena e Demave
Partizani
10th · 7 pts1–3FULL TIME
Tirana
5th · 12 pts37% Partizani
24% Draw
39% Tirana
OUR PICK
Tirana to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.58
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.52
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.70X4.1122.58
Goals 2.5Over1.73Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.66
GG
60%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
PartizaniTirana1.1Goals per game1.4
2.1Conceded per game1.5
0.70Points per game1.20
20%Win rate30%
-10Goal difference-1
3Form, last 5 (pts)7
Partizani form
WLLLLA Teuta Durrës0–1
A AF Elbasani2–1
H Skenderbeu Korce0–2
A Vora4–1
H Tirana1–3
Tirana form
LDLWWH Egnatia Rrogozhinë1–2
H Dinamo Tirana1–1
A Vllaznia Shkodër2–0
H Laci1–0
A Partizani1–3
Head to head
2
Partizani
0
Draw
3
Tirana
Oct 2026Partizani – Tirana1–3
Apr 2026Tirana – Partizani2–1
Feb 2026Partizani – Tirana2–0
Dec 2025Tirana – Partizani0–2
Oct 2025Partizani – Tirana0–3
Superliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Egnatia Rrogozhinë10+1124
2Teuta Durrës10+1020
3Dinamo Tirana10+317
4AF Elbasani10+114
5Tirana10-112
6Vora10-412
7Skenderbeu Korce10-111
8Laci10-411
9Vllaznia Shkodër10-59
10Partizani10-107
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Partizani 37%, the draw 24%, Tirana 39%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.48 for Partizani, 1.52 for Tirana), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Partizani sit 10th on 7 points; Tirana are 5th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.