ITASerie A · Matchday 9Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Ennio Tardini

Parma

15th · 8 pts

0–0FULL TIME

Udinese

19th · 5 pts

50% Parma

23% Draw

27% Udinese

OUR PICK

Parma to win

Model probability 50% · fair odds

2.01

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.23

Confidence

Fair

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.01X4.2723.74

Goals 2.5Over1.74Under2.19

Both scoreGG1.71NG2.30

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.25

Over 1.5

80%

Over/Under 2.5@1.74

Over 2.5

57%

Both teams to score@1.71

59%

Double chance@1.31

77%

Season stats

ParmaUdinese

0.8Goals per game1.1

1.5Conceded per game2.3

0.80Points per game0.50

20%Win rate10%

-7Goal difference-12

4Form, last 5 (pts)1

Parma form

WDLLL

A Atalanta0–3

H Udinese0–0

A Lazio2–1

H Torino0–3

A Inter3–0

Udinese form

LDLLL

H AS Roma2–5

A Parma0–0

H AC Milan0–2

H Lecce0–3

A Torino2–1

Head to head

Parma

Draw

Udinese

Oct 2026Parma – Udinese0–0

Apr 2026Udinese – Parma0–1

Nov 2025Parma – Udinese0–2

Mar 2025Udinese – Parma1–0

Sept 2024Parma – Udinese2–3

Serie A table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Lazio10+1628

2Inter10+1325

3AS Roma10+1824

4Como10+1023

5AC Milan10+921

6Frosinone10+1020

7Juventus10+317

8Napoli10+414

9Bologna10+114

10Torino10-213

Match preview

Our model makes Parma slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.76 for Parma, 1.23 for Udinese), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Parma sit 15th on 8 points; Udinese are 19th on 5.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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