Over 1.5 goals@1.49
Over 1.5
67%
ITASerie A · Matchday 7Monday, 19 October 2026 · Ennio Tardini
Parma
18th · 5 pts0–3FULL TIME
Torino
10th · 13 pts36% Parma
28% Draw
36% Torino
OUR PICK
Parma to win
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.79
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.15
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.79X3.5222.79
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.68
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.88
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.68
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.88
NG
53%
Double chance@1.40
12
72%
Season stats
ParmaTorino0.6Goals per game1.4
1.7Conceded per game1.6
0.56Points per game1.30
11%Win rate40%
-10Goal difference-2
4Form, last 5 (pts)9
Parma form
WDLLLA Atalanta0–3
H Udinese0–0
A Lazio2–1
H Torino0–3
A Inter3–0
Torino form
LLWWWA Frosinone2–0
H Como1–3
H Monza3–2
A Parma0–3
H Udinese2–1
Head to head
1
Parma
2
Draw
2
Torino
Oct 2026Parma – Torino0–3
Mar 2026Torino – Parma4–1
Sept 2025Parma – Torino2–1
Mar 2025Parma – Torino2–2
Jan 2025Torino – Parma0–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Parma 36%, the draw 28%, Torino 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.79 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.15 for Parma, 1.15 for Torino), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Parma sit 18th on 5 points; Torino are 10th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.