Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 8Monday, 26 October 2026 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 20 pts2–0FULL TIME
Lyon
3rd · 17 pts38% Paris
25% Draw
36% Lyon
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Both teams to score
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.38
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.61X3.9622.74
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.76NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.76
GG
57%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Paris Saint GermainLyon2.3Goals per game1.7
1.1Conceded per game0.8
2.22Points per game1.89
67%Win rate56%
11Goal difference8
15Form, last 5 (pts)9
Paris Saint Germain form
WWWWWA Le Havre1–5
H Lyon2–0
H Barcelona4–2
A Strasbourg1–3
A Manchester City2–4
Lyon form
WLLWWH Angers2–0
A Paris Saint Germain2–0
A 1899 Hoffenheim3–0
H Nice2–1
H Crystal Palace3–2
Head to head
4
Paris
0
Draw
1
Lyon
Oct 2026Paris Saint Germain – Lyon2–0
Apr 2026Paris Saint Germain – Lyon1–2
Nov 2025Lyon – Paris Saint Germain2–3
Feb 2025Lyon – Paris Saint Germain2–3
Dec 2024Paris Saint Germain – Lyon3–1
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Paris Saint Germain 38%, the draw 25%, Lyon 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.42 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.38 for Lyon), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Paris Saint Germain sit 1st on 20 points; Lyon are 3rd on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.