Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 20 pts3–1FULL TIME
Le Mans
17th · 7 pts72% Paris
16% Draw
12% Le
OUR PICK
Paris Saint Germain to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.39
Expected goals
2.60 – 0.99
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.39X6.2328.21
Goals 2.5Over1.44Under3.04
Both scoreGG1.72NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.44
Over 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.72
GG
58%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
Paris Saint GermainLe Mans2.3Goals per game1.2
1.1Conceded per game2.0
2.22Points per game0.78
67%Win rate11%
11Goal difference-7
15Form, last 5 (pts)4
Paris Saint Germain form
WWWWWA Le Havre1–5
H Lyon2–0
H Barcelona4–2
A Strasbourg1–3
A Manchester City2–4
Le Mans form
LDLLLA Estac Troyes2–0
A Auxerre1–1
H Toulouse0–3
A Paris Saint Germain3–1
A Guingamp2–1
Head to head
4
Paris
0
Draw
0
Le
Oct 2026Paris Saint Germain – Le Mans3–1
Feb 2025Le Mans – Paris Saint Germain0–2
Jul 2021Paris Saint Germain – Le Mans4–0
Dec 2019Le Mans – Paris Saint Germain1–4
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Stade Brestois 299+412
Match preview
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.60 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.99 for Le Mans), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Paris Saint Germain sit 1st on 20 points; Le Mans are 17th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.