Over 1.5 goals@1.04
Over 1.5
96%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 9 pts4–2FULL TIME
Barcelona
8th · 6 pts49% Paris
18% Draw
33% Barcelona
OUR PICK
Paris Saint Germain to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
2.80 – 2.32
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X5.5723.03
Goals 2.5Over1.13Under7.86
Both scoreGG1.18NG6.29
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.13
Over 2.5
88%
Both teams to score@1.18
GG
85%
Double chance@1.22
12
82%
Season stats
Paris Saint GermainBarcelona4.7Goals per game3.7
1.7Conceded per game2.0
3.00Points per game2.00
100%Win rate67%
9Goal difference5
9Form, last 5 (pts)6
Paris Saint Germain form
WWWWWA Le Havre1–5
H Lyon2–0
H Barcelona4–2
A Strasbourg1–3
A Manchester City2–4
Barcelona form
WLLWWH Alaves6–1
H Real Madrid1–2
A Paris Saint Germain4–2
A Real Betis2–5
A Galatasaray1–4
Head to head
3
Paris
1
Draw
1
Barcelona
Oct 2026Paris Saint Germain – Barcelona4–2
Oct 2025Barcelona – Paris Saint Germain1–2
Apr 2024Barcelona – Paris Saint Germain1–4
Apr 2024Paris Saint Germain – Barcelona2–3
Mar 2021Paris Saint Germain – Barcelona1–1
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 5.1 goals in total (2.80 for Paris Saint Germain, 2.32 for Barcelona), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Paris Saint Germain sit 1st on 9 points; Barcelona are 8th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.