Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Stade Jean Bouin
Paris FC
4th · 17 pts4–3FULL TIME
Rennes
5th · 16 pts54% Paris
22% Draw
24% Rennes
OUR PICK
Paris FC to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.85
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.23
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.85X4.5524.18
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
Paris FCRennes1.8Goals per game2.2
1.1Conceded per game2.1
1.89Points per game1.78
56%Win rate56%
6Goal difference1
9Form, last 5 (pts)6
Paris FC form
WLWLWH Monaco3–1
A Lens2–1
H Rennes4–3
A Lorient1–0
H Strasbourg2–1
Rennes form
LWDLWA Nice5–2
H Strasbourg3–0
A Juventus2–2
A Paris FC4–3
H OFI2–1
Head to head
1
Paris
0
Draw
2
Rennes
Oct 2026Paris FC – Rennes4–3
May 2026Rennes – Paris FC2–1
Nov 2025Paris FC – Rennes0–1
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Stade Brestois 299+412
Match preview
Our model makes Paris FC slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.85 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.95 for Paris FC, 1.23 for Rennes), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Paris FC sit 4th on 17 points; Rennes are 5th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.