Over 1.5 goals@1.48
Over 1.5
68%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 9Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Stade Jean-Bouin
Paris FC
4th · 17 pts3–1FULL TIME
Monaco
7th · 15 pts42% Paris
28% Draw
30% Monaco
OUR PICK
Paris FC to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.40
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.05
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.40X3.5823.29
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.70
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.88
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.88
NG
53%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
Paris FCMonaco1.8Goals per game1.3
1.1Conceded per game1.1
1.89Points per game1.67
56%Win rate44%
6Goal difference2
9Form, last 5 (pts)5
Paris FC form
WLWLWH Monaco3–1
A Lens2–1
H Rennes4–3
A Lorient1–0
H Strasbourg2–1
Monaco form
LDWLWA Paris FC3–1
H Lille1–1
H SC Freiburg3–0
A Lorient1–0
A CSKA Sofia1–2
Head to head
3
Paris
0
Draw
0
Monaco
Nov 2026Paris FC – Monaco3–1
Apr 2026Paris FC – Monaco4–1
Nov 2025Monaco – Paris FC0–1
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Paris FC slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.28 for Paris FC, 1.05 for Monaco), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Paris FC sit 4th on 17 points; Monaco are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.