Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
GRESuper League 1 · Matchday 6Monday, 12 October 2026 · Toumba Stadium
PAOK
3rd · 18 pts1–3FULL TIME
Kalamata
8th · 10 pts75% PAOK
14% Draw
11% Kalamata
OUR PICK
PAOK to win
Model probability 75% · fair odds
1.33
Expected goals
2.98 – 1.10
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.33X7.1529.10
Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.58NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.58
GG
63%
Double chance@1.12
1X
89%
Season stats
PAOKKalamata2.0Goals per game1.6
1.3Conceded per game2.1
2.00Points per game1.25
67%Win rate38%
6Goal difference-4
9Form, last 5 (pts)9
PAOK form
WWLWLH Asteras Tripolis2–1
H AEK Athens FC3–1
A OFI2–1
H Iraklis 19082–1
H Kalamata1–3
Kalamata form
WLWWLA Nestos Chrisoupolis0–2
A Olympiakos Piraeus5–0
H OFI4–3
A PAOK1–3
H Panathinaikos0–1
Head to head
2
PAOK
0
Draw
1
Kalamata
Oct 2026PAOK – Kalamata1–3
Jan 2023PAOK – Kalamata2–0
Dec 2022Kalamata – PAOK0–2
Super League 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos9+1624
2Olympiakos Piraeus9+1122
3PAOK9+618
4AEK Athens FC8+1617
5Aris Thessalonikis9-416
6OFI9+216
7Kifisia9-211
8Kalamata8-410
9Iraklis 19088-29
10Panetolikos9-99
Match preview
Our model makes PAOK clear favourites, giving them a 75% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.33 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (2.98 for PAOK, 1.10 for Kalamata), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
PAOK sit 3rd on 18 points; Kalamata are 8th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.