Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
GRESuper League 1 · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Toumba Stadium
PAOK
3rd · 18 pts2–1FULL TIME
Iraklis 1908
9th · 10 pts56% PAOK
22% Draw
22% Iraklis
OUR PICK
PAOK to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.79
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.08
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.79X4.4624.64
Goals 2.5Over1.76Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.79NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.79
GG
56%
Double chance@1.27
1X
78%
Season stats
PAOKIraklis 19082.0Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.3
2.00Points per game1.11
67%Win rate22%
6Goal difference-2
9Form, last 5 (pts)5
PAOK form
WWLWLH Asteras Tripolis2–1
H AEK Athens FC3–1
A OFI2–1
H Iraklis 19082–1
H Kalamata1–3
Iraklis 1908 form
LLWDDH Kifisia2–3
A PAOK2–1
H Levadiakos2–0
A Aris Thessalonikis0–0
H Atromitos1–1
Head to head
1
PAOK
0
Draw
0
Iraklis
Oct 2026PAOK – Iraklis 19082–1
Super League 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos9+1624
2Olympiakos Piraeus9+1122
3PAOK9+618
4AEK Athens FC8+1617
5Aris Thessalonikis9-416
6OFI9+216
7Kifisia9-211
8Kalamata9-411
9Iraklis 19089-210
10Panetolikos9-99
Match preview
Our model makes PAOK clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.79 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.88 for PAOK, 1.08 for Iraklis 1908), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
PAOK sit 3rd on 18 points; Iraklis 1908 are 9th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.