Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
GRESuper League 1 · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium
Panathinaikos
1st · 24 pts5–1FULL TIME
Asteras Tripolis
12th · 6 pts74% Panathinaikos
18% Draw
8% Asteras
OUR PICK
Panathinaikos to win
Model probability 74% · fair odds
1.35
Expected goals
2.02 – 0.48
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.35X5.45212.99
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.84
Both scoreGG2.86NG1.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.49
NG
67%
Double chance@1.08
1X
92%
Season stats
PanathinaikosAsteras Tripolis2.2Goals per game0.9
0.4Conceded per game1.9
2.67Points per game0.67
89%Win rate11%
16Goal difference-9
12Form, last 5 (pts)5
Panathinaikos form
WWWWWH AEK Athens FC2–0
H Aris Thessalonikis2–1
A Volos NFC0–1
A Kairat Almaty1–5
H Asteras Tripolis5–1
Asteras Tripolis form
LLDLWA PAOK2–1
H Kifisia0–2
H Levadiakos0–0
A Panathinaikos5–1
H Atromitos2–1
Head to head
4
Panathinaikos
0
Draw
1
Asteras
Oct 2026Panathinaikos – Asteras Tripolis5–1
Mar 2026Asteras Tripolis – Panathinaikos1–2
Oct 2025Panathinaikos – Asteras Tripolis2–0
Dec 2024Asteras Tripolis – Panathinaikos0–1
Aug 2024Panathinaikos – Asteras Tripolis0–1
Super League 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos9+1624
2Olympiakos Piraeus9+1122
3PAOK9+618
4AEK Athens FC8+1617
5Aris Thessalonikis9-416
6OFI9+216
7Kifisia9-211
8Kalamata8-410
9Iraklis 19088-29
10Panetolikos9-99
Match preview
Our model makes Panathinaikos clear favourites, giving them a 74% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.35 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (2.02 for Panathinaikos, 0.48 for Asteras Tripolis), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Panathinaikos sit 1st on 24 points; Asteras Tripolis are 12th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.