Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
73%
BRASerie A · Matchday 29Friday, 9 October 2026 · Nubank Parque
Palmeiras
2nd · 70 pts1–0FULL TIME
Bahia
6th · 53 pts63% Palmeiras
22% Draw
15% Bahia
OUR PICK
Palmeiras to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.59
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.75
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.59X4.4926.72
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.90
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.79
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.79
NG
56%
Double chance@1.17
1X
85%
Season stats
PalmeirasBahia1.7Goals per game1.5
0.7Conceded per game1.3
2.12Points per game1.61
61%Win rate42%
34Goal difference6
13Form, last 5 (pts)7
Palmeiras form
WDWLWH Vasco DA Gama1–0
A Santos0–0
H RB Bragantino2–0
H Fluminense0–1
A Atletico Paranaense0–2
Bahia form
WDLWLH Sao Paulo3–2
A Santos1–1
H Flamengo0–3
H Mirassol1–0
A Palmeiras1–0
Head to head
3
Palmeiras
0
Draw
2
Bahia
Oct 2026Palmeiras – Bahia1–0
Apr 2026Bahia – Palmeiras1–2
Sept 2025Bahia – Palmeiras1–0
Apr 2025Palmeiras – Bahia0–1
Nov 2024Bahia – Palmeiras1–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Palmeiras clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.82 for Palmeiras, 0.75 for Bahia), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Palmeiras sit 2nd on 70 points; Bahia are 6th on 53.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.