Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
81%
ITASerie B · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Renzo Barbera
Palermo
1st · 26 pts2–1FULL TIME
Carrarese
15th · 10 pts68% Palermo
19% Draw
13% Carrarese
OUR PICK
Palermo to win
Model probability 68% · fair odds
1.46
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.86
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.46X5.4027.63
Goals 2.5Over1.68Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.68
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
51%
Double chance@1.15
1X
87%
Season stats
PalermoCarrarese2.4Goals per game0.9
1.2Conceded per game1.3
2.60Points per game1.00
80%Win rate30%
12Goal difference-4
13Form, last 5 (pts)9
Palermo form
WDWWWH Vicenza Virtus3–1
A Pisa3–3
H Carrarese2–1
A Mantova0–2
A Empoli2–4
Carrarese form
LWLWWA Hellas Verona3–0
H Arezzo2–1
A Palermo2–1
H Modena2–1
A Padova0–2
Head to head
3
Palermo
1
Draw
1
Carrarese
Oct 2026Palermo – Carrarese2–1
Mar 2026Carrarese – Palermo0–1
Nov 2025Palermo – Carrarese5–0
May 2025Palermo – Carrarese1–1
Dec 2024Carrarese – Palermo1–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Palermo clear favourites, giving them a 68% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.23 for Palermo, 0.86 for Carrarese), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Palermo sit 1st on 26 points; Carrarese are 15th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.