Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
HUNNB I · Matchday 9Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Fehérvári úti stadion
Paks
5th · 17 pts3–0FULL TIME
MTK Budapest
11th · 12 pts54% Paks
20% Draw
26% MTK
OUR PICK
Paks to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.84
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.58
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.84X5.0623.87
Goals 2.5Over1.34Under3.77
Both scoreGG1.40NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.34
Over 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.40
GG
72%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
PaksMTK Budapest1.8Goals per game1.3
1.8Conceded per game2.1
1.42Points per game1.00
42%Win rate25%
1Goal difference-9
9Form, last 5 (pts)3
Paks form
LWWLWA Ferencvarosi TC2–0
A Cigand SE1–2
A Vasas0–2
H Gyori ETO FC1–2
H MTK Budapest3–0
MTK Budapest form
LWLWLA Zalaegerszegi TE3–0
A Monori Se1–5
A Ferencvarosi TC5–0
H Vasas1–0
A Paks3–0
Head to head
5
Paks
0
Draw
0
MTK
Oct 2026Paks – MTK Budapest3–0
Mar 2026MTK Budapest – Paks0–2
Dec 2025Paks – MTK Budapest3–1
Aug 2025MTK Budapest – Paks2–3
Apr 2025MTK Budapest – Paks1–2
NB I table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Gyori ETO FC12+722
2Puskas Academy12+221
3Ferencvarosi TC11+1020
4Debreceni VSC12+419
5Paks12+117
6Vasas12+316
7Ujpest11+215
8Budapest Honved11-313
9Zalaegerszegi TE12-613
10Kisvarda FC12-212
Match preview
Our model makes Paks slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.84 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (2.33 for Paks, 1.58 for MTK Budapest), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Paks sit 5th on 17 points; MTK Budapest are 11th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.