Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Alphamega Stadium
Pafos
27th · 1 pts1–1FULL TIME
Riga
21st · 2 pts37% Pafos
25% Draw
39% Riga
OUR PICK
Riga to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.59
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.49
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.72X4.0722.59
Goals 2.5Over1.78Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.69NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.78
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.69
GG
59%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
PafosRiga1.0Goals per game1.0
2.0Conceded per game1.0
0.50Points per game1.00
0%Win rate0%
-2Goal difference0
1Form, last 5 (pts)2
Pafos form
No recent matches.
Riga form
DWDWDA Ogre United0–0
A Grobiņa2–5
A Pafos1–1
H Super Nova2–1
H Kairat Almaty1–1
Head to head
0
Pafos
1
Draw
0
Riga
Oct 2026Pafos – Riga1–1
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Pafos 37%, the draw 25%, Riga 39%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.45 for Pafos, 1.49 for Riga), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Pafos sit 27th on 1 points; Riga are 21st on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.