Over 1.5 goals@1.69
Over 1.5
59%
ITASerie B · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stadio Comunale Euganeo
Padova
9th · 14 pts1–2FULL TIME
Virtus Entella
14th · 10 pts44% Padova
30% Draw
26% Virtus
OUR PICK
Padova to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.17 – 0.82
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.27X3.3023.89
Goals 2.5Over2.95Under1.47
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.47
Under 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.63
NG
61%
Double chance@1.35
1X
74%
Season stats
PadovaVirtus Entella1.0Goals per game1.1
1.1Conceded per game1.2
1.40Points per game1.00
40%Win rate20%
-1Goal difference-1
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
Padova form
DWWLLA Catanzaro1–1
H Sudtirol2–0
A Avellino0–1
H Virtus Entella1–2
H Carrarese0–2
Virtus Entella form
LDLWDA Sampdoria2–0
H Avellino1–1
H Mantova0–1
A Padova1–2
H Juve Stabia1–1
Head to head
2
Padova
0
Draw
3
Virtus
Oct 2026Padova – Virtus Entella1–2
Apr 2026Virtus Entella – Padova1–0
Sept 2025Padova – Virtus Entella2–1
May 2025Padova – Virtus Entella0–1
Nov 2021Padova – Virtus Entella2–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Padova slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.17 for Padova, 0.82 for Virtus Entella), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Padova sit 9th on 14 points; Virtus Entella are 14th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.