Over 1.5 goals@1.48
Over 1.5
68%
ITASerie B · Matchday 11Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Stadio Euganeo
Padova
9th · 14 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Empoli
18th · 8 pts51% Padova
27% Draw
22% Empoli
OUR PICK
Padova to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.94
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.86
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.94X3.7724.54
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.70
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.80
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.80
NG
56%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
PadovaEmpoli1.0Goals per game1.0
1.1Conceded per game1.7
1.40Points per game0.80
40%Win rate20%
-1Goal difference-7
7Form, last 5 (pts)2
Padova form
DWWLLA Catanzaro1–1
H Sudtirol2–0
A Avellino0–1
H Virtus Entella1–2
H Carrarese0–2
Empoli form
DLLDLH Juve Stabia2–2
A Cesena2–1
H Vicenza Virtus0–2
A Ascoli1–1
H Palermo2–4
Head to head
1
Padova
0
Draw
1
Empoli
Apr 2026Padova – Empoli1–0
Aug 2025Empoli – Padova3–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Padova slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.94 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.47 for Padova, 0.86 for Empoli), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Padova sit 9th on 14 points; Empoli are 18th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.