Over 1.5 goals@1.61
Over 1.5
62%
ITASerie B · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stadio Comunale Euganeo
Padova
9th · 14 pts0–2FULL TIME
Carrarese
15th · 10 pts54% Padova
28% Draw
19% Carrarese
OUR PICK
Padova to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.86
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.70
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.86X3.6325.35
Goals 2.5Over2.70Under1.54
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.61
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Under 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.61
NG
62%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Season stats
PadovaCarrarese1.0Goals per game0.9
1.1Conceded per game1.3
1.40Points per game1.00
40%Win rate30%
-1Goal difference-4
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
Padova form
DWWLLA Catanzaro1–1
H Sudtirol2–0
A Avellino0–1
H Virtus Entella1–2
H Carrarese0–2
Carrarese form
LWLWWA Hellas Verona3–0
H Arezzo2–1
A Palermo2–1
H Modena2–1
A Padova0–2
Head to head
1
Padova
1
Draw
1
Carrarese
Oct 2026Padova – Carrarese0–2
Feb 2026Padova – Carrarese1–0
Aug 2025Carrarese – Padova0–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Padova clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.86 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.40 for Padova, 0.70 for Carrarese), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Padova sit 9th on 14 points; Carrarese are 15th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.