Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 12Monday, 2 November 2026 · Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Oviedo
9th · 18 pts16:15KICK-OFF WAT
Las Palmas
14th · 14 pts57% Oviedo
23% Draw
20% Las
OUR PICK
Oviedo to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.99
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.75X4.4124.99
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
OviedoLas Palmas1.4Goals per game1.3
1.1Conceded per game1.7
1.64Points per game1.27
45%Win rate36%
3Goal difference-5
10Form, last 5 (pts)4
Oviedo form
DDWWLA Numancia3–3
A Almeria2–2
A AD Ceuta FC1–2
H Eibar3–1
A Eldense4–1
Las Palmas form
WWLLDA RSD Alcalá1–3
H Real Sociedad II1–0
H Castellón0–3
A Mallorca3–1
H Valladolid2–2
Head to head
1
Oviedo
3
Draw
1
Las
Apr 2023Las Palmas – Oviedo0–1
Dec 2022Oviedo – Las Palmas0–0
May 2022Las Palmas – Oviedo2–1
Nov 2021Oviedo – Las Palmas1–1
Apr 2021Oviedo – Las Palmas0–0
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón11+1826
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Girona12+1121
5Granada CF11+420
6Burgos11+420
7Mallorca11+719
8Sporting Gijon11-219
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Oviedo clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.84 for Oviedo, 0.99 for Las Palmas), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Oviedo sit 9th on 18 points; Las Palmas are 14th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.