Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
SWESuperettan · Matchday 26Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Jämtkraft Arena
Ostersunds FK
4th · 48 pts1–1FULL TIME
Varbergs BoIS FC
3rd · 48 pts43% Ostersunds
27% Draw
30% Varbergs
OUR PICK
Ostersunds FK to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.32
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.06
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.32X3.6623.38
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.76
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.93
NG
52%
Double chance@1.38
12
73%
Season stats
Ostersunds FKVarbergs BoIS FC1.3Goals per game1.7
1.0Conceded per game1.3
1.66Points per game1.66
41%Win rate45%
9Goal difference11
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Ostersunds FK form
LWDDLA IFK Norrkoping3–0
H United Nordic4–1
A Sandviken0–0
H Varbergs BoIS FC1–1
A Rosenborg2–0
Varbergs BoIS FC form
DDDDH Ljungskile SK2–2
A Landskrona BoIS1–1
H Helsingborg0–0
A Ostersunds FK1–1
Head to head
2
Ostersunds
2
Draw
1
Varbergs
Oct 2026Ostersunds FK – Varbergs BoIS FC1–1
Apr 2026Varbergs BoIS FC – Ostersunds FK1–2
Aug 2025Varbergs BoIS FC – Ostersunds FK1–1
May 2025Ostersunds FK – Varbergs BoIS FC0–1
Jul 2024Ostersunds FK – Varbergs BoIS FC2–1
Superettan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1IFK Norrkoping29+4365
2Falkenbergs FF29+1554
3Varbergs BoIS FC29+1148
4Ostersunds FK29+948
5Oddevold29+1245
6Landskrona BoIS28+1344
7Osters IF28+142
8United Nordic29-442
9Sandviken29+538
10IFK Varnamo29-1035
Match preview
Our model makes Ostersunds FK slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.32 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.34 for Ostersunds FK, 1.06 for Varbergs BoIS FC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ostersunds FK sit 4th on 48 points; Varbergs BoIS FC are 3rd on 48.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.