Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 12Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Estadio El Sadar
Osasuna
15th · 11 pts18:30KICK-OFF WAT
Athletic Club
7th · 15 pts23% Osasuna
25% Draw
52% Athletic
OUR PICK
Athletic Club to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.94
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.58
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.31X3.9621.94
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.88
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.88
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.97
NG
51%
Double chance@1.30
X2
77%
Season stats
OsasunaAthletic Club1.0Goals per game1.4
2.0Conceded per game1.0
1.00Points per game1.50
27%Win rate40%
-11Goal difference4
4Form, last 5 (pts)8
Osasuna form
LWLWLA Deportivo La Coruna2–1
A Atletico Calatayud0–6
A Sevilla2–0
H Racing Santander2–0
A Real Betis5–2
Athletic Club form
WWWLDH Real Sociedad2–1
A Prat1–6
H Getafe4–0
A Levante3–1
A Valencia0–0
Head to head
1
Osasuna
2
Draw
2
Athletic
Apr 2026Athletic Club – Osasuna1–0
Jan 2026Osasuna – Athletic Club1–1
Mar 2025Athletic Club – Osasuna0–0
Jan 2025Athletic Club – Osasuna2–3
Dec 2024Osasuna – Athletic Club1–2
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Athletic Club slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.94 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.97 for Osasuna, 1.58 for Athletic Club), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Osasuna sit 15th on 11 points; Athletic Club are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.