Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
SWEAllsvenskan · Matchday 24Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Gamla Ullevi
Orgryte IS
15th · 19 pts4–2FULL TIME
Gais
10th · 34 pts20% Orgryte
25% Draw
56% Gais
OUR PICK
Gais to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.80
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.63
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.06X4.0521.80
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.83
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.87
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.87
NG
54%
Double chance@1.25
X2
80%
Season stats
Orgryte ISGais1.2Goals per game1.2
2.2Conceded per game1.0
0.70Points per game1.31
15%Win rate35%
-27Goal difference6
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Orgryte IS form
LLDWLA IF Elfsborg2–1
H Mjallby AIF1–2
A Djurgardens IF2–2
H Gais4–2
A BK Hacken3–0
Gais form
WDLLWA Kalmar FF0–1
H IFK Goteborg1–1
A Orgryte IS4–2
H Sirius0–1
A Mjallby AIF0–3
Head to head
2
Orgryte
0
Draw
3
Gais
Oct 2026Orgryte IS – Gais4–2
May 2026Gais – Orgryte IS4–0
Mar 2024Gais – Orgryte IS3–0
Sept 2023Orgryte IS – Gais1–4
Jun 2023Gais – Orgryte IS0–1
Allsvenskan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hammarby FF27+3455
2Sirius26+2255
3Djurgardens IF27+3052
4BK Hacken27+1849
5IF Elfsborg27+1446
6Vasteras SK FK27+244
7Malmo FF27+640
8AIK Stockholm26-338
9IFK Goteborg27-1038
10Gais26+634
Match preview
Our model makes Gais clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.80 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.86 for Orgryte IS, 1.63 for Gais), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Orgryte IS sit 15th on 19 points; Gais are 10th on 34.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.